Suddenly the demand for space is reduced

It is in a morose economic context that ends today in Paris the 2009 Edition of the Salon international logistics solutions (proposes) real time. Society organizer of the event, Reed Exhibitions France increased by 20 the surface of the show for its 500 exhibitors. "The attendance should turn around 28.500 visitors", hope Alain Bagnaud, Director General of the proposes. Directly dependent on the good health of the business and household consumption, this profession specializing in the storage and supply of goods of all kinds (spare parts, food, etc.) is a net slowdown in activity. Suddenly, the demand for space is reduced. "As for the other estate assets such as offices, housing or the walls of hotels, logistics had not been spared by the financial and economic depression." "So, purchasers are still present, especially those who financed by own funds or using little savings", says Jean-Marie Guillet, responsible for the logistics team at Jones Lang LaSalle France. According to a study of CB Richard Ellis, the year 2009 does not come under the best auspices. "The number of placed square meters should balance between 1.6 and 2 million, up from 2.4 million in 2008 and 2.6 in 2007", advance Didier Malherbe, Deputy Director General in charge of logistics activities of this real estate firm. With little transactions recorded in the beginning of this year, professionals admit lack of recent references to engage in the game of the annual projections.

20 Of the application

Now, users are cautious and wait. The contraction of the real estate application is significant in the "logistics". For memory, these professionals are working on behalf of companies who have outsourced this function. "Logistics services contracts are generally of short duration, ranging from one to three years." "This flexibility allows to developments in the market," explains Jean-Paul Deheeger, Director of the logistics real estate Gecina. However, the slump is less marked in the "Chargers", these departments included in the distribution and industry companies. "Times of crisis or, they are always looking for more or less important spaces." "Applications evolve continuously," commented Maïté Inglis, Executive Director of Gazeley France. Event: the average surface of a warehouse is reduced. It is approximately 20,000 m2, against 30,000 to 50,000 m2 in 2007. As to the time of decision to new locations, it elongates. Businesses agree several months. Result: the application already contracted by 20 in one year. To avoid the vacancy and therefore mechanical performance, donors are trying to retain their tenants or seduce others. They review rents to decline, or propose flanking measures such as participation in the work, the establishment of franchises, etc. "to limit future rent increases, occupants asked enter the lease of the deadlines for blocking the increase", said Jean-Louis Foessel, President of the Executive Board of Sogaris. Recently, the AEW Europe Group has not spared its efforts to find a new occupant ready to rent 40.000 m2 released by one of its major clients. "It adapts to the case by case basis." "Contracts and the requirements of tenants evolve quickly" agrees François Grandvoinnet, Director of asset management General of AEW Europe.

Cape on the turnkey

This state of the halftone is not unique to the France. March 4, index Jones Lang LaSalle from the rental of logistics in Europe values reported a decline of 0.6 in the fourth quarter of 2008, the first since 2004. Published last week, the 2009 Edition, "Industrial Space Across the World", Cushman & Wakefield confirms NET degradation of the global rental market with a growth of rents from 2.4 in 2008, compared to 6.1 in 2007. However, there are geographical differences. If the Western Europe and North America are affected, Eastern Europe and South America derive their PIN of the game.

To compensate for the slump in the sector, the development of this type of real estate specialists recently concentrated in turnkey operations. They design customized spaces suited to the needs of companies. In 2009, only 100,000 m2 to be developed by Gazeley in France will be this way. For its part, Alsei attempts to fill a niche: port logistics. "The ports generate flows and large volumes of storage," says Jean-Chistophe Courné, the CEO of this company. Last week, the group delivered to AEW Europe 46,000 m2 to the port of le Havre in Normandy bridge logistics park.

While the volume of demand weakens, the offer should to develop. "In addition to the release of unnecessary space, the stock of buildings will continue to grow, because delivery of new operations before the crisis," anticipating Jean-Claude Bossez, President of Afilog, a professional association consisting of 80 players in logistics. Thus in Ile-de-France, ProLogis will honour its last operation white decided for a long time. A two steps away from the Roissy airport, the group engage in Vémars (Val-) 50,000 m2. "The hollow of the promotion is expected for 2010", it provides in GSE, specialist in the design of logistics buildings.

In 2008, "the amount of investments amounted to 1.1 billion, compared to 2.8 billion in 2007, a record year." "60", Said Nicholas Jordan, Director of the industrial investment in Cushman & Wakefield France Department. This decline is significant, because there are still three years, the inflow of capital on the French market had oriented investors logistics. High yields and easy gains, investment funds and institutional rushed on projects of large parks and platforms. Purely financial and speculative, these operations in white were essentially funded credit by generalist operators. Or they have now completely disappeared. "This drift is now complete." "Only a few specialized investors remain active," noted one observer. Performance wasted in this real estate is more conducive to investment. Even if the rate has appreciated by 0.5 in a year and now stands between 7.5 and 8 per year, he is struck by the Office, close to 6 to 8. "In 2006 and 2007, logistical assets offered attractive reports for investors who could not position itself on the acquisition of offices that they were too expensive." "Today, the opportunities for the acquisition of the last property is again accessible for general practitioners, these premises of activities present for them less interest except in the eyes of investors specialized", argues Nicholas Jordan.

Now, the market is tightening on a "transverse" axis from Lille to Marseille from Paris to Lyon. Wanted for Freeway service and easy access, this geographic perimeter focused to only 70-80 of the transactions. However, for new sectors that have emerged in recent years, the current situation is tougher. In Burgundy, Bordeaux, Angers or Toulouse local toil to be rent. "In a less dynamic market, the remote locations of the axes of communication and consumption basins are penalized", summarizes Jean-Louis Lazuech, Director of development at ProLogis France.