Disadvantage Sarkozy has repeatedly said that he did not want to hear

The extension of the Cades

The organic law of August 2005 stipulates that any transfer of debt to the Fund for amortization of the social debt (Cades) must now be accompanied by an increase in revenues to "not increase the duration of depreciation" (the extinction of the Cades is estimated around 2020). This is what has made the Government in the 2009 social security budget: 26.9 billion euros of debts transfer was accompanied by a transfer of the Cades CSG. But given the situation of social accounts, a new transfer of revenues seems hardly feasible. The Government could therefore decide to extend the life of the Cades, but would need to go through a new organic law. A very perilous exercise.

The increase of the DRES

Another option to transfer the debt to the Cades would be to increase the rate of Contribution to the social debt (CRDS), set today to 0.5. Advantage: it would be a limited increase, since all of the additional revenue to the extinction of the Cades would be recorded. An increase of 0.2 of the DRES would transfer more than 25 billion euros of debt without extending the duration of depreciation. Disadvantage: Sarkozy has repeatedly said that he did not want to hear. In addition, the Government preferred to retain "the weapon" levies rise, inevitable in the medium term to cover the deficit.

The removal of the Cades

To work around the obstacle of the organic law, why not remove the Cades by transferring the burden of the debt remaining cushion (about 100 billion, 37 billion has already been depreciated) the State, and therefore the Agency France treasure The solution has the merit of simplicity, and the AFT has so far not encountered difficulty in issuing loans. But the Cades was created in 1996 to, in particular, do not mix the debt of the State (which can be justified by its investments) and social security which is not to be, the operating expenditure to be financed. In addition, the Constitutional Council may determine that there is circumvention of the organic law.

The creation of a Fund for amortization of crisis

This is the solution advocated by Edouard Balladur. The former Prime Minister proposes to create a "public debt amortization fund", a sort of bis Cades, which would reimburse deficits in crisis. It would be, in his mind, before all devoted to the some 60 billion deficit expected this year Bercy connects directly to the crisis (the other 40 billion being considered "structural"). But an important part of the social security deficit is also linked to the choice not to increase the levies and not to cut spending. Edouard Balladur suggested to provide stable resources, "such as for example claims" Fund that holds the State banks and companies to which it advanced funds The President of the National Assembly, Bernard Accoyer, had suggested in the fall of the launch of a large national debt.

Outstanding recovery of debt by the State

Considering that that the crisis has created an exceptional deficit of social security, of a different nature of previous deficits, the State could resume a part of the social debt instead of the transfer to the Cades, not to delete this. "None of these solutions is really satisfactory", concludes the record close. It remains to select the "least worst".