080 euros and an average loss flood of 21

Storm Xynthia at the end of February will leave traces on the Vendée coast, but also on account of the insurers. "Les echos" were investigated with the main actors in the market, to determine their precise exposure in the storm, the number of reported disasters or the distribution of the cost related to wind damage and water damage, the latter of disaster plan. Ten interviewed actors constitute a representative sample, since they represent 331.090 statements of claims to a cumulative $ 1.2 billion, or 80 to 97.5 of official estimates.

The global cost of the latter bear is indeed assessed for the time between 1.28 billion and EUR 1.5 billion. The first estimate comes from perils, company created by insurers, reinsurers and European brokers to aggregate data on natural disasters, the second of the French Federation of insurance companies (FFSA), worth 800 million of effects related to the wind (53 of the total), and 700 million effects related to water (47). Note that it is a crude cost, before taking account of the public reinsurance - the Central reinsurance Fund (CCR) supports 50 of damage under the scheme natural - and private, that is the program of "Storm" subscribed disasters every year by each insurance company.

The cost of the damage associated with water

What lessons to draw First, the cost is logically focused on larger insurers damage of the market. The seven most affected groups - Covéa, Groupama, AXA, Allianz and Pacifica (Crédit Agricole), Macif, Maif, in descending order - account for only 1.09 billion euros of damage, or 91 of the value of our sample.

Average claims ranged between 2,000 and 5,000 euros, according to the operators, but this data reflects poorly if most of the claims is focused on the damage related to the wind (87 of the total), they are related to water damage that cost the most expensive. Thus, in our sample, they represent on average 53 of the cost. In this regard, the data released by the Group of mutual insurance companies (Gema) are eloquent: 143.621 statements, only 8 are related to the floods, but these represent 63 of the overall cost for mutual, estimated at EUR 385 million. It is an average loss "Storm" 1.080 euros, and an average loss "flood" of 21.251 euros.

In more than 80 of cases, these are houses that have been affected. The insurers reported us a low proportion of damage on the cars (between 5 and 11 of the total of declarations). A few farms and businesses were also beaten. "Contrary to what had been observed in the transition from Klaus in early 2009, few forests, factories and supermarkets have been affected this time", is an insurer.

Cycle of increases

Finally, the true cost to insurers will depend on the effect buffer actually played by reinsurance. Four groups have agreed to give us their net exposure: Xynthia will cost 192 million and 51.6 million euros to the Maif, approximately 150 million Covea, between 35 and 40 million in Generali, Groupama. On the basis of these observations, the net cost is therefore between 50 and 75 of the gross costs. "On the part of storm, retention (the part held by insurers) runs generally between 30 and 50, while the flood part, reinsurance is 50 ", indicates an insurer. In total, the insurers should a minimum withstand 40 of the cost, either a foreseeable net impact of the order of 500 to 600 million euros for the profession.

This very heavy invoice should certainly be reflected in the contributions. However, "climate events are not in themselves generators tariff evolution, because they are well reinsureds and we can play on the mutualization", says a mutualist. Except that Xynthia occurred less than a year after another major storm, Klaus, who has seriously shaken the technical results 2009, and in a context of strong rebound in auto insurance loss experience. Aggravating circumstance, the insurers can no longer count on financial products to lower combined ratios (grim and fresh reported premiums) often exceed 100.

Claude Tendil, the CEO of Generali France ("Les Echos" from March 23) or Roger Iseli, the Director General of the Macif ("Les Echos" from May 14), announce both the entry in a cycle of rising prices.