Search
Values of crisisYou need to know live with its timeI am still convinced that a market existsConsumers love the kiwi they love the strawberryDo not lose one side that won on the otherNo longer pay its debts borrow on forty yearsIt deteriorates and immediate and urgent actionIt is even more marked on the body serious iPurchasing decisions are then adopted by a majority voteSuddenly the demand for space is reducedThe first is that the plan is finally outMarket bruisse rumours of capital increase now. Yesterday, BNP Paribas still plunged on the Paris stock exchange, as investors bet on a lifting of capital. "There is speculation on virtually all banks", smiles an anglo-saxon banker.
The last few months have been rich ads. Increases in capital with the preferential right of subscription (DPS) grew strongly. From Dealogic, after they have reached since the beginning of the year more than $ 100 billion in Europe against 67 billion approximately to the same period a year earlier. "It is the format preferred for the operations of significant size, to associate the shareholders with the operation", reminiscent of Ghislain de Brondeau and Laure Lemaignen syndication shares of Société Générale.
Banking appetite
The vast majority of operations was the result of the banking sector such as in Santander (EUR 7.2 million), which must complete week next even if a few industrialists, as recently Finmeccanica, have also chosen this format.
With the prevalence of these increases in capital with DPS in recent months in the primary market, accelerated investments are minority in Europe. Almost eleven months, they reached 25.8 billion $ 66 billion a year earlier. Although this type of operation is well adapted to the volatility of the markets, "the choice of window market is a key success factor." "The operations are performed in a few hours only, in view of the strong market shifts", note Laurent Capès, primary market manager France of Deutsche Bank.
Results mixed
Despite many rumors, and even if operations can be done, professionals do not expect a proliferation of increases of capital by the end of the year, considering the high volatility of markets. First for reasons of timing. "If a transmitter is to launch an operation before Christmas, should do in all days: a classic capital with DPS increase requires at least a month of time", said a banker of Calyon. Then, because all recent operations have not been frank success, as evidenced low subscription rates registered for some banks, such as, to cite them, HBOS and Bradford & Bingley.
At the same time, the discount it is dug, that issuers can expect prefer to defer their ads. "With the ex-droit course, the discount is on average for the Bank by 36 since the beginning of the year, an increase from 2007." "And since the re-entry, it still increased, more than 40," resumed the Calyon specialist.
"It is more in a market of investors transmitters, said Laurent Capès, primary market responsible actions France at Deutsche Bank.". It becomes more difficult to operations that are not previously undertaken by Governments or funds or well placed with a limited number of investors who have expressed interest. Moreover, increases in capital in the financial sector are generally one of the elements of broader operations of refinancing with the issuance of shares of preference or hybrid securities.
The investment bankers believe, must therefore await 2009 to review a true rain of operations in Europe. Sectoral spectrum could be wider: some industrial societies could appeal to the market for acquisitions, refinancing or even, in the opinion of some professionals, simply continue to exist.
