Economists expect an index down 86 points

The price of oil returned to haunt the markets yesterday. Released from the Fed, in line with expectations, noted Wednesday, at 5 interest rates, investors nevertheless were inclined to caution against the new thrust of black gold fever. The price of oil approached 74 dollars in London and New York. The effect was felt on equity markets, Wall Street opening in light fold while the European places reduced their earnings in session before switching in the red.

But it has also weighed on the bond markets, also energized by the statements made by Jean-Claude Trichet.

The performance of the OAT to 10 years is is tended by 8 basis points, to 4,088, and the performance of the Bund to 10 years in 8 basis points at 4,061. 2 Years mortgage rates are similarly strained by 6 basis points, in France as in Germany.

At a symposium in Linz, Austria, the Governor of the European Central Bank indicated that the ECB "is in a situation of great vigilance to avoid risks to price stability materialize." Risk of side effect"of the rise in oil prices, he said that" being alert has been and will remain at the heart of his conduct monetary policy. "

GDP of the euro area, emerged an increase of 0.6 in the first quarter (2 annual rate), proved to be consistent with expectations. Still, the tension was compounded by statements by Nout Wellink, Member of the Board of Governors of the ECB, which has been suggested that a monetary tightening of 50 basis points was not to exclude.

Retail sales disappointing

Across the Atlantic, the bond markets were calmer. After the rate hike decided Wednesday by the Fed, investors betting on a pause in monetary tightening cycle. Statistics of the day came, rather, strengthen this hypothesis. April retail sales emerged an increase of 0.5 instead of 0.8 expected by economists. Non-automobile, they increased by 0.7, 0.9 expected. Single compartment marked by an increase in sales is the service stations, whose sales have jumped 4.6. A progress directly related to a price effect. "The rise in the price of gasoline affect clearly sense of households, as demonstrated Tuesday a first indicator of consumer confidence, in the meantime the index calculated by the University of Michigan", note the ING economists who might announce lower consumption figures in the coming months.

The index of the University of Michigan is expected this afternoon. Economists expect an index down 86 points. "If this is confirmed, this would ensure a pause of the Federal Reserve in June and would increase the likelihood that rates have now peaked, although data are still expected of here at June 29, 2006," they say.

Data which will be carefully monitored by the US monetary authorities. In its release, the Federal Reserve noted that the inflation outlook remained so far contained. But she added that an additional monetary tightening "may be necessary to deal with inflationary pressures," a gesture "the extent and the timing depend largely the evolution of the Economic Outlook" drawn by future data. Clearly, the Fed left margins for manoeuvre.

On the market of the Exchange, after a brief respite Wednesday, the greenback again floundered, affecting low of 12 months against the euro. The relative disappointment caused by sales below expectations retail has accentuated the movement. The single currency, which had crossed the Cape of 1.28 dollar Wednesday after the Fed decision, ended yesterday in 1,2842 dollar. The pound sterling also reached a higher one year against the greenback.