Issue of perimeterEvery medal has its setbacks

There are routine in some records. Total net profits are now installed over EUR 1 billion per month. The only notable element of the first quarter is that their new advanced coincides with a fall in volumes, both for the stream produced upstream (from 5) for the quantities refined downstream (from 8). More than ever, therefore, the effect of prices production that plays, and increases in Total has obtained its oil (33) and gas (40) were higher than the market references. But, curiously, this powerful thrust is not found in the course of Total, or in those of the other majors. An increase of 5 since the beginning of the year, the capitalization of national champion integrates not the average level of the price of oil in the first quarter, still less the record prices of these days. This is firstly because shareholders more attribute them to geopolitical tensions, which can diminish to sustainable supply and demand imbalances. Perhaps also a sign that they questioned the profitability of investments on the very strong rise in the current context, will necessarily less selective and more expensive than in the past. The outbreak of the courts of the companies benefiting from this influx of orders is only a hint that there is a strong risk of excess in the air.

Issue of perimeter

Every medal has its setbacks. The double announcement made by Suez of synergies most important expected project merger with SFM and a turnover higher than expectations, with the boom of energy in Europe, brings in germ a few questions. The reconciliation process which must be spread until December passes by downstream of Belgian and European authorities. But this double "Brussels" agreement could reserve a few surprises. Especially because some people want to take advantage of the opportunity to redesign down the flamboyant perimeter of Suez in the electricity and gas. This could go well beyond simple concessions related to the presence of SFM in the number two Belgian electricity EPS. Electrabel and Distrigaz are the spearheads of Suez energy Europe, which provides 40 of the turnover of the Group and more important than other activities twice organic growth. If these results validate the interest of a rapprochement with SFM, all sensitive new perimeter erosion could make a flat. And the shareholders of Suez which action currently offers a bonus of two euro equity provided by SFM may wonder if the game worthwhile really, at this price. So Enel maintains as a sword of Damocles virtual offer "in cash" a priori much higher.

Obligation of result

It is better to be cautious in forecasting and daring in the action that the reverse. On the occasion of first quarter results, investors still hope of Bernard Charlès, President of Dassault Systèmes, he will report its annual expectations, found to be generally very conservative. The exercise was this time further expected that the champion of the simulation software launched within a year two acquisitions in the United States. Less exciting their margins by their technology, they have reduced the predictability of its accounts and enhanced its risk profile. In announcing that the second would be reached sooner than expected, so that it would further penalize the exercise, but that the first align this year on the performance of the group, Bernard Charlès has cleverly offset a disappointment by relief. The rebound of the course, after three months of a decline that was heightened recently, suggests that the message is passed. Even if it defers to the next appointment the wait even more reassuring data. On paper, Dassault systems can align several years of growth of its profits to more than 15. But, in the light of its ratios of capitalization, lower than those of companies less profitable and more quiet, the Fellowship assigns such coefficient of doubt that it is condemned to deliver faster and better than this that it provides.